Kyl-Lieberman, the Webb amendment, and the impending strikes on Iran

There has been much talk of how Hillary Clinton's recent support of the Webb amendment somehow shows that she has not given the Bush administration a way to attack Iran with her senate vote declaring the Qods force a terrorist organization. A careful understanding of both of these pieces of legislation is key to understanding the practical effects both have on the President and his ability to execute tactical strikes against the Iranian military.

First and Foremost, it must be made clear that the Qods force is not a terrorist organization, and more importantly classifying them as one is not strategic for US interests.

The stated purpose of the Qods Force is to help Islamic revolutions in foreign nations. It began during the Iran-Iraq war as a kind of black ops force that only answered to the Supreme Leader of Iran (a basic understanding of the complicated power divisions within the Iranian Democracy is helpful here). Anyhow it is clear that Iran has an interest in taking charge in the inevitable power vacuum which will arise in Iraq. If anything they are a military organization which is fighting a foreign invading power. Of course the US government will liken the Qods force to Hezbollah, an organization which can be considered terrorists in some respects and legitimate government in others. The reality is that Hezbollah started as a guerrilla force fighting the Israeli invasion of Lebanon. This is slightly tangential, but the point is that many of those who are classified as terrorist organizations are done so only because they fight the US government or US military (a fact which in fact proves them NOT to be terrorists, but moving on.)

There has been much talk of how Hillary Clinton's recent support of the Webb amendment somehow shows that she has not given the Bush administration a way to attack Iran with her senate vote declaring the Qods force a terrorist organization. A careful understanding of both of these pieces of legislation is key to understanding the practical effects both have on the President and his ability to execute tactical strikes against the Iranian military.

First and Foremost, it must be made clear that the Qods force is not a terrorist organization, and more importantly classifying them as one is not strategic for US interests.

The stated purpose of the Qods Force is to help Islamic revolutions in foreign nations. It began during the Iran-Iraq war as a kind of black ops force that only answered to the Supreme Leader of Iran (a basic understanding of the complicated power divisions within the Iranian Democracy is helpful here). Anyhow it is clear that Iran has an interest in taking charge in the inevitable power vacuum which will arise in Iraq. If anything they are a military organization which is fighting a foreign invading power. Of course the US government will liken the Qods force to Hezbollah, an organization which can be considered terrorists in some respects and legitimate government in others. The reality is that Hezbollah started as a guerrilla force fighting the Israeli invasion of Lebanon. This is slightly tangential, but the point is that many of those who are classified as terrorist organizations are done so only because they fight the US government or US military (a fact which in fact proves them NOT to be terrorists, but moving on.)

The Kyl-Lieberman amendment is very dangerous and faulty for a number o reasons.

1. It gives Bush the authority to tactically strike a many targets within the Iranian Military.

2. The Iranian military is just that, a formal wing of the Iranian government. Who they give money and resources to is secondary to the fact that they serve the leadership in Iran and are legitimate (in the weberian sense) actors.

3. The Iranian government may very well be funding insurgents, however anti-colonial rebellion is a different kind of violence than that of Al-Quada. The big difference I see is that those who attack the US military (or the sunnis) are taking strategic action in order to accomplish political goals, as opposed to Al-Quada who has no strategic goals and just wants to cause fear and chaos in american society. Osama didnt think that 911 would hurt the military strength of our government, he knew it would hurt our moral strength.

4. This helps Iran in a number of ways. First and foremost it 100% proves the idea that America thinks all Muslims who fight us are terrorists to be correct. This is a huge boost for A-jad who can now run the next time around on being the only guy who can protect iran from American aggression. Additionally it buys into the god damn bush talking point that all anti-colonial insurgents in Iraq are terrorists. I still cannot understand how people think that those who oppose an invader are terrorists. (if this is true than I will become a terrorist as soon as canada invades).

5. it kills our credibility on fighting the very real threat that Al-Quada poses. How many times can we claim to attack a nation in the middle east because of terrorism before the excuse is bunk?

On to the Kyl-Lieberman Amendment. The implications for President Bush and foreign policy are quite simple. It cites the testimony of Patraeus and Crocker in which they say they have seen hard evidence (interrogations, computer files, etc.) which show that there has been Iranian funding of shi'i militias. It recommends that the President (I believe it is the Secretary of State officially) to list the Qods force as a foreign terrorist organization and authorizes all political, economic, and military actions needed to dismantle them. It gives the President the ability to use all the force of the Patriot act and the War on Terror to persecute these fighters (and presumably any other target in Iran which can be linked to the Qods force.)

The point I am trying to get to here has to do with the empty and possibly unconstitutional Webb amendment. The amendment itself is quite short, the first section basically says to funds can be appropriated to fight a unilateral war with Iraq. The second section is one that I would like to investigate in detail, and it is a list of exceptions, one that clearly still allows massive amounts of argumentative room for the Bush administration.

the exceptions are as follows:

           (1) Military operations or activities to directly repel an attack launched from within the territory of Iran.

           (2) Military operations or activities to directly thwart an imminent attack to be launched from within the territory of Iran.

           (3) Military operations or activities in hot pursuit of forces engaged outside the territory of Iran who thereafter enter into Iran.

           (4) Military operations or activities connected with the intelligence or intelligence-related activities of the United States Government.

It is clear that from the Patraeus testimony alone the Webb amendment leaves open justification for strategic strikes within Iran. All that has to be proven is that Iran is launching strikes against any target in Iraq and the criteria for military action has been met. The first three reasons are all about the same thing, which is chasing any Iranian funds and military presence back into the Iranian territory. The last is also significant because it gives a black check to the CIA/NSA to fight terrorism in any kind of manner relating to intelligence gathering.
I worry that we as a citizenry are being fooled by superficial understandings of foreign policy and War. My point is that the Webb amendment does nothing except stop a full scale invasion of Iran, an action that we couldnt physically do without a draft anyway. It distracts us from the real possible problem, surgical strikes.

On a level that has nothing to do with Iran, the Webb amendment is troublesome. Remember a time when congress took its constitutional authority to declare war seriously? I don't, but that because they haven't declared war in my lifetime. The slow erosion of congressional power in the interest of the Unitary executive must stop, and weak language like this doesnt help.-

" (b), the President shall submit to the appropriate committees of Congress a report on the determination, including a justification for the determination."

NOTE: This is my first diary and I would appreciate any kind of advice, about both substance and using this damn contraption we call Mydd. Also, I dont mean to single out hillary, but it seems that her votes have been the source of discussion.



Display:


silly (none / 0)

Obama and Dodd used to be the co-sponsors of Kyl-Lieberman amendment.

Stupid hit piece. Where's my tin foil hat...


Hillary: We will finally have a president who doesn't mind pulling over and asking for directions. Am I right, ladies?
by areyouready on Tue Oct 02, 2007 at 09:58:22 PM EST

Re: silly (none / 0)

this isnt meant to advance any candidate, but the way I put up the diary literally 30 seconds ago, I dont think its physically possible for you to have read it.

this isnt about candidates, Dodd and Obama deserve just as much criticism. This is about War. Is that too heavy for you?


zombies are coming
by leewesley on Tue Oct 02, 2007 at 10:01:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Kyl-Lieberman, the Webb amendment, and the imp (none / 0)

what do ya think? Any diary advise?


zombies are coming
by leewesley on Tue Oct 02, 2007 at 09:59:50 PM EST

Re: Kyl-Lieberman, the Webb amendment, and the imp (none / 0)

Firstly, I really appreciate the substance of your diary and the attempt to make a comprehensive point about things perhaps more compelling and relevant than the upcoming election.  I would suggest that when you are listing things that perhaps putting the lists in blockquotes would enhance readability and give those who are skimming your diary a better chance of getting the gist of what you are saying, as opposed to having to sift them out of large blocks of body text.


by Shaun Appleby on Tue Oct 02, 2007 at 10:11:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Kyl-Lieberman, the Webb amendment, and the imp (none / 0)

check. I also now realize that i need to read it over more than once for spelling, but what can I say, i'm crippled by our reliance on the spellcheck function.


zombies are coming
by leewesley on Tue Oct 02, 2007 at 10:19:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

and the impending strikes on Iran (none / 0)

Excellent diary.  You might want to use block quotes and link to stories that support your view, but otherwise great.


The sharpest criticism often goes hand in hand with the deepest idealism and love of country. ~RFK
by Vox Populi on Tue Oct 02, 2007 at 10:03:13 PM EST

Re: Kyl-Lieberman, the Webb amendment, and the imp (none / 0)

Actually I think the IRG should be placed on the terror watch list , the idea is to be able to freeze their assets and place economic sanctions on them because they are operating like a distinct arm of government .

Hence Clinton was right to vote for it to be placed on the list , no one should be able to get away with formenting trouble in Iraq and killing our troops.

Now I have to give you the context from which I am speaking , I disagree with Clinton on her initial vote and I almost retracted my support for her after she voted against the supplemental because I felt it was wrong . So this is not some type of unwavering support for Clinton , on this Iraq issue I find myself almost out of sync with the party as a whole. I believe the IRG should be on the terror list not based on the administration's reasoning but from personal conversations.


Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.
by lori on Tue Oct 02, 2007 at 10:04:44 PM EST

Re: Kyl-Lieberman, the Webb amendment, and the imp (none / 0)

You may have noticed that the Iranian parliament responded to the Leiberman/Kyl vote by condemning the CIA and our Army on similar grounds:


The Iranian parliament on Saturday voted to designate the United States' Central Intelligence Agency and the U.S. Army as terrorist organizations, IRNA, the country's state-run news agency, reported.

The Iranian parliament says the U.S. Army and the CIA are "trained terrorists," IRNA reported.

The CIA and the U.S. Army "trained terrorists and supported terrorism, and they themselves are terrorists," the parliament said, according to IRNA.

The Iranian parliament said the condemnation was based on "known and accepted" standards of terrorism from international regulations, including the U.N. charter.

The parliament said it condemns the "aggressions by the U.S. Army, particularly in Iraq and Afghanistan" and calls on the United Nations to "intervene in the global problem of U.S. prisons in Guantanamo Bay, Abu Ghraib and secret jails in other countries," IRNA reported, quoting a statement from Iranian lawmakers.

CNN - 29 Sep 07

Do you think that they have no similar grounds for making that assessment?  Did our vote do anything but antagonise a hostile power without having any other practical effect?  A power that Hillary  intends the US to have diplomatic negotiations with if elected?


by Shaun Appleby on Tue Oct 02, 2007 at 10:19:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Kyl-Lieberman, the Webb amendment, and the imp (none / 0)

it clearly kicked diplomacy in the head. Iran actually proves my point. The CIA engages in many activities which could be called terrorist is we are using the definition thrown at the Qods force. A foreign power giving financial and military support to a rebel militia? Are you kidding me? I'm going to assert that we have given aid to rebel militias more than any other nation including the Soviet Union (call bullshit if this is incorrect). We need consistency and moral leadership in the War on Terror! Every strictly military action we take to eliminate terrorism must be coupled with infinitely more humanitarian aide. This is a war of ideology and the elimination of a need for recruitment. We have to walk the walk of leadership in democracy. otherwise we prove islamicists correct.


zombies are coming
by leewesley on Tue Oct 02, 2007 at 10:29:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Kyl-Lieberman, the Webb amendment, and the imp (none / 0)

They have the right to do what they think is appropriate in their country and they might as well have legitimate reasons for placing the CIA and FBI on a terror watchlist , but I don't think their actions should deter us from what we think is the right thing to do .

There are a lot of groups on the terror watchlist even individuals and we are not at war with them , the purpose is to have to flexibility to be able to apply pressure on Iran e.g. diplomatic freeze , economic sanctions etc.

No responsible nation should stand idly by if the lives of your soldiers and fellow citizens are involved . What I will like to see is the passage of the webb bill that says the president has to come to congress to declare war and the exceptions in the webb bill is on point.


Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.
by lori on Tue Oct 02, 2007 at 10:30:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Kyl-Lieberman, the Webb amendment, and the imp (none / 0)

so any group of people (corporate, military, governmental, religious, activist) can be placed on the terror watch list if it helps us? Dont we need to actually have a real definition of terrorism? or can the netroots be designated a terrorist organization by a Giuliani administration? Because its not so implausible given certain vague parts of the Patriot act.


zombies are coming
by leewesley on Tue Oct 02, 2007 at 10:35:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Kyl-Lieberman, the Webb amendment, and the imp (none / 0)

C'mon thats not what we are talking about here , there is a definitely a criteria being followed for placing people on the watchlist granted the list has been messed up and muddled due to ineptness and bueracratic incompetence but people or groups get on the terror watchlist if they are considered a grave danger to the national security of the country and its citizen at a minimum and the IRG fits the bill, there is definitely a criteria although I don't know what it is comprehensively because it probably is classified for national security purposes.

So you voicing your opinion on mydd won't get you on the list.


Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.
by lori on Tue Oct 02, 2007 at 10:42:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Kyl-Lieberman, the Webb amendment, and the imp (none / 0)

i know its improbable, but the point is that any actor which can be dangerous to our national security being considered "terrorist" is not good foreign policy. Why isnt NK on the terrorist watch list? We need diplomacy, not threats.


zombies are coming
by leewesley on Tue Oct 02, 2007 at 10:47:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Kyl-Lieberman, the Webb amendment, and the imp (none / 0)

Actually that is part of diplomacy , economic sanctions , diplomatic freezes , travel ban are all part of diplomacy . Its a way to apply pressure and use leverage to put you in a position in which you can get some of what you want or all.

Talking is also part of diplomacy but all this other factors complement talking so you can achieve some of or all you want. We can't just talk to Iran without achieving anything.


Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.
by lori on Tue Oct 02, 2007 at 10:52:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Kyl-Lieberman, the Webb amendment, and the imp (none / 0)

everything you say is absolutely true, and none of it is dependent on a classification of terrorist, which only can have negative effects.


zombies are coming
by leewesley on Tue Oct 02, 2007 at 11:00:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Kyl-Lieberman, the Webb amendment, and the imp (none / 0)

everything you say is absolutely true, and none of it is dependent on a classification of terrorist, which only can have negative effects.


zombies are coming
by leewesley on Tue Oct 02, 2007 at 11:00:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Kyl-Lieberman, the Webb amendment, and the imp (none / 0)

my bad on the double


zombies are coming
by leewesley on Tue Oct 02, 2007 at 11:00:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Kyl-Lieberman, the Webb amendment, and the imp (none / 0)

"Actually I think the IRG should be placed on the terror watch list , the idea is to be able to freeze their assets and place economic sanctions on them because they are operating like a distinct arm of government ."
- i understand that freezing assests is a valuable tool in helping our Troops, but how does our ability to use international financial institutions to stop money transfers really going to affect the Qods force, dont you think Iran can get them cash under the table? We dont need to call them terrorists to place economic sanctions on them.

I just feel that the massive loss of legitimacy for the war on terror and giving A-jod a great reelection platform- not to mention that we are effectively proving the leaders of Islamicist mosques and madrassas correct in their assertion that all Muslims we dont like are terrorists- is worse.


zombies are coming
by leewesley on Tue Oct 02, 2007 at 10:16:44 PM EST

Any Attack On Iran Will Lead To Invasion (none / 0)

It would, of course, not be a matter of "limited strikes." And once we are in there, we can never get out. We all know that too, right?


by blues on Tue Oct 02, 2007 at 10:29:24 PM EST

Re: Any Attack On Iran Will Lead To Invasion (none / 0)

If we invade Iran not only will we get our asses handed to us, we secure the century long war that rumsfeld spoke of.


zombies are coming
by leewesley on Tue Oct 02, 2007 at 10:36:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Any Attack On Iran Will Lead To Invasion (none / 0)

Here's an interesting piece from The Sunday Times whose military affairs reporter recently visited the 'Checkmate' Pentagon strategic air war planning centre (emphasis added):


I asked when the Bush administration's widely expected air war against Iran would begin. This was not a subject my hosts cared to discuss. Smiles vanished. Dr Lani Kass, Checkmate's formidable senior civilian official, a former Israeli military officer who had somehow morphed into a senior Pentagon advisor, dismissed my question, insisting no decision to attack Iran had been made. She called a possible air war "unlikely". But I was ready to bet plans to blitz Iran were being drawn up in an adjoining office. One could feel a buzz of excitement among Checkmate's hard-eyed officers who wore combat flight suits and tensed up every time I mentioned Iran. Pentagon sources say the air force has selected 3,000-4,000 targets in Iran, and that some US and British special forces are already operating there. However, Washington sources also report strong opposition to war against Iran among the Pentagon's brass, and high-ranking officials in the CIA, Treasury, and state department. They view war with Iran as unpredictable, unwise and dangerous at a time when US ground and air forces are stretched to breaking point in Iraq and Afghanistan. "We can defeat Iran," insisted Dr Kass, `but are Americans willing to pay the price?"

Eric Margolis - The Sunday Times 22 Sep 07


I thought the remarks by the Isreali civilian administrator of our war planning centre to be very poignant, don't you?  Sounds like she knows what she's talking about.


by Shaun Appleby on Tue Oct 02, 2007 at 10:50:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Any Attack On Iran Will Lead To Invasion (none / 0)

If Iran continues down the path of Nuclear weapons and diplomacy fails to stop them , what would the US do about that ?


Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.
by lori on Tue Oct 02, 2007 at 10:59:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Any Attack On Iran Will Lead To Invasion (none / 0)

thats a hard decision, but one years away and one that could be avoided if efforts were made.


zombies are coming
by leewesley on Tue Oct 02, 2007 at 11:02:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Any Attack On Iran Will Lead To Invasion (none / 0)

The reason I ask is all our leading presidential candidates say they will never allow Iran to develop nuclear weapons , ok .

They always say we can stop them with diplomacy which is not likely going to happen , okay so what will theses guys do then when diplomacy fails which it is likely to do.

I am waiting for a coherent foreign policy position from our candidates


Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.
by lori on Tue Oct 02, 2007 at 11:11:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Any Attack On Iran Will Lead To Invasion (none / 0)

me too. But we cant do it.


zombies are coming
by leewesley on Tue Oct 02, 2007 at 11:19:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Any Attack On Iran Will Lead To Invasion (none / 0)

The most optimistic model would be one along the lines of the events which led to the abandonment of their nuclear program by Libya not so long ago.  A combination of carrot and stick with a dignified out for the Iranians.  If we really want them to cease this prorgam, which I doubt sometimes, the aggressive rhetoric and threat of military action is getting us nowhere.  We need to act in a way that encourages other nations to join us in pressuring Iran, cease pointlessly demonising them at every opportunity, stop pissing Russia off long enough for them to act with us and broker an equitable resolution of Israel's overdue peace with Syria, which is quite achievable incidentally.  We are doing none of these things at the moment.

From the perspective of the rest of the world we don't seem to want to do any of these things and they are standing back and holding their breath, hoping the collateral damage of our impending conflict doesn't harm them too badly.  We are virtually alone, in many ways, and have squandered many opportunities and the goodwill of many allies already.


by Shaun Appleby on Tue Oct 02, 2007 at 11:24:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Any Attack On Iran Will Lead To Invasion (none / 0)

I don't believe Iran has any intention of stopping their nuclear program , they have come this far out and Iran is on the rise due to the iraq war , we are basically operating from a point of weakness and they know it.

It is more of a thing of National pride now and a symbol of the ascension of their power in the middle east , I do not see any reason why they will want to stop now . Russia and china seem to think that it is acceptable for Iran to be a nuclear power , so we are going to get to the end of the road pretty soon and what do we do then. Its going to either be we live with a nuclear iran or isreal strikes their facilities , I think the latter option is probably going to be the case.


Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.
by lori on Tue Oct 02, 2007 at 11:41:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Any Attack On Iran Will Lead To Invasion (none / 0)

Israel will strike with our precision guided clusterbombs and Bunker Busters.


zombies are coming
by leewesley on Tue Oct 02, 2007 at 11:49:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Any Attack On Iran Will Lead To Invasion (none / 0)

Well I don't think that is necessarily the case, that Iran is determined to become a nuclear power.  If they are it is probably because they share a border with Pakistan, who is already a nuclear power and an aggressive Sunni one at that.  I think that they are not our friends in the region, although we have more common cause in some matters than you may be led to believe, and that they definitely have ambitions of increasing their power there.  But basically I think they are seeking what all powers seek when acquiring nuclear weapons, a better seat at the table of regional and international geopolitics, which, to be fair, has been denied them for many years, partly through their own intransigence.

You don't think they really intend to wipe out Israel, do you?  If we were concerned about that we could just draft a mutual defence treaty with Israel which could insure a nuclear counter-strike on Iran which would leave their nation a radioactive barren for generations to come.  That would work.  We are an amazingly powerful nation yet we are getting into an asymmetric brawl with a basically minor power over a matter of principle and rhetoric.  We can only lose stature by treating them as a significant threat.

No, I think there are many ways we could bring diplomatic and economic pressure to bear on Iran if we really wanted to, and would find that if we took a reasonable approach we would have many allies who would actively help us achieve that end.  What makes you think a US or Israeli strike would stop their nuclear program anyhow?  There is considerable evidence to the contrary.


by Shaun Appleby on Wed Oct 03, 2007 at 12:33:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Any Attack On Iran Will Lead To Invasion (none / 0)

I don't think it would stop them but it might slow it down , I am not entirely sure what the overall impact will be and I am not advocating a strike either.

I am just not optimistic about them dismantling their nuclear weapons the way you seem to be .

Russia , China seem to think it is okay to live with a nuclear iran and are blocking every move to impose tougher sanctions and all leading presidential candidates on both sides seem to agree that iran shouldn't have nuclear weapons and I can't see any reason why Iran would all of a sudden become Libya this far out , they see it as national pride and have been working on it for decades and they know we are held captive in Iraq so they know the chips are with them.

The rubber is going to hit the road pretty soon . Unless there is a radical change in attitude of Iran which I don't believe will happen , we will either have to let them have nuclear weapons or do something about it.

I see it as an either or situation , because I don't see Iran dropping their program , its just not going to happen in my view.

With regards to them using Nuclear Weapons on Isreal , I don't know . And I don't think Isreal as a nation is willing to take that chance and I personally do not think if I was a leader of Isreal I will be willing to take that chance.

A nation that has been willing to sell weaponry to hezbollah to fight a proxy war with your nation and has been calling for your annihilation , I don't blame Isreal for not accepting the chance of that , no responsible leader of a nation like Isreal will be willing to take that chance . To live under the perpetual fear of annihilation from another state who is your sworn enemy is a risk not worth taking.


Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.
by lori on Wed Oct 03, 2007 at 01:13:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Any Attack On Iran Will Lead To Invasion (none / 0)

Well, it may surprise you to know that Khamenei, the real leader of Iran has tacitly accepted Israel's right to exist, over a year ago:


In June 2006, Khamenei issued an official declaration stating that Iran agrees with the Arab countries on the issue of Palestine, meaning that it accepts the 2002 Arab League call for full normalization of relations with Israel in a two-state settlement in accord with the international consensus. The timing suggests that this might have been a reprimand to his subordinate Ahmadenijad, whose inflammatory statements are given wide publicity in the West, unlike the far more important declaration by his superior Khamenei. Just a few days ago, former Iranian diplomat Saddagh Kharazzi "reaffirmed that Iran would back a two-state solution if the Palestinians accepted" (Financial Times, July 26, 2006). Of course, the PLO has officially backed a two-state solution for many years, and backed the 2002 Arab League proposal. Hamas has also indicated its willingness to negotiate a two-state settlement, as is surely well-known in Israel. Kharazzi is reported to be the author of the 2003 proposal of Khatami and Khamanei.

Noam Chomsky - Yediot Ahronot interview 3 Aug 06

And the reason that Russia and China have been resisting us in the UN is because we have been making trouble for them elsewhere, especially Russia who is the major agent in this.

Please realise that Iran is at least two years away from a nuclear warhead, by the most optimistic IAEA estimates, so there is plenty of time to act.  The issue at the moment has been made urgent only because of the geopolitical agendas elsewhere in the Middle East, largely Iran's support of Hezbollah and Hamas where they have scored a few hits on us already.  We are pissed.  But really the major factor, in my opinion, is that this whole conflict fits neatly into the domestic need of Republicans to create yet another foreign threat to bolster support for the ongoing war in Iraq and deflect attention from our incompetent policies there, which have basically failed.  If you have come to believe in the imperative of taking action against Iran there is little I can do to convince you otherwise.  I will leave you with a thought, though, and a re-published opinion piece from the editorial page of the International Herald Tribune, the expatriate edition of the NYT, regarding how our country dealt with such a threat when it was real:


In 1945, General Leslie Groves, head of the Manhattan Project, bluntly declared, "If we were truly realistic instead of idealistic, as we appear to be, we would not permit any foreign power with which we are not firmly allied, and in which we do not have substantial confidence, to make or possess atomic weapons. If such a country started to make atomic weapons, we would destroy its capacity to make them before it has progressed far enough to threaten us."

Even when, in subsequent years, more dovish figures like Bertrand Russell and J. Robert Oppenheimer supported the idea of a pre-emptive strike against nascent Soviet nuclear facilities, President Harry Truman renounced the idea.

When Dwight D. Eisenhower succeeded Truman, that renunciation defined his "massive retaliation" doctrine, an official commitment to refrain from first strikes on Soviet nuclear targets. In 1954, Ike approved a National Security Policy paper that made it formal; "The United States and its allies must reject the concept of preventive war or acts intended to provoke war."

By the time John F. Kennedy became president, all-out nuclear war seemed imminent. But when, in summer 1961, the new technology of satellite surveillance showed that the Soviet nuclear force was far smaller and more vulnerable than ever imagined, the Pentagon brass saw a God-given opportunity to head off Armageddon simply by blowing up Moscow's nuclear weapons on the ground. Defying the generals, and their civilian acolytes, Kennedy said no.

Because of Truman, Eisenhower and Kennedy, such renunciation became a pillar of American political morality, but history unfolded to show that, despite Groves's contrast between realism and idealism, this consistent refusal to launch antinuclear attacks was profoundly practical, too.

James Carrol - The Boston Globe 1 Oct 07

I don't know about you but I find that a particularly compelling argument against a pre-emptive nuclear attack on Iran, now or ever.


by Shaun Appleby on Wed Oct 03, 2007 at 01:33:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Any Attack On Iran Will Lead To Invasion (none / 0)

Actually I am not advocating any strike on Iran but it might get to a point where we have to make that decision . Either we let them have it or we do something about it . Isreal will also have to make that decision . Since all contenders on both sides keeps saying we can't let them have it , when the rubber hits the road they have to make a decision  dem/repub/isreal , since they all say Iran cannot have it.

You are putting a lot of faith in the position that they will drop it if we have diplomacy but I am not for the reasons I have stated above.So these candidates and we as a country and Isreal as well would have to make that decision down the line.

I hope a breakthrough can happen and iran will all of a sudden drop what they have been working on for a decade that has become a symbol of national pride and the rise of shiaism in the middle east .

All I am saying is I do not put a lot of faith in that hope and sooner or later the US and Isreal will have to make a decision.


Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.
by lori on Wed Oct 03, 2007 at 01:52:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Any Attack On Iran Will Lead To Invasion (none / 0)

Well, I will bet you a good steak dinner that when that time comes, and it may be a lot longer off than you seem to expect, they will do precisely nothing.  Have you looked into the practical military aspects of this?  There is no coherent method, barring some new development in conventional or nuclear weapons that gives us or them any kind of ability to do this 'surgically,' given the dispersal of these labratories throughout the country.  I posted a diary on the near impossibility of achieving this with conventional weapons earlier this year when the threat, in my estimation, was significantly greater.  And the consequences of a pre-emptive nuclear attack by the US are dire.

Our current planning, as you would have noted from the article I posted up-thread, include over 3,000 targets across Iran.  Can you imagine the consequences of such an unprovoked attack by the US on a sovereign power?  Surely we are not contemplating that.  As Lee said up-thread that would probably lead to the 100 years war of the 21st Century, an outcome far worse than any other scenario involving a nuclear Iran which I can think of just now.

Why are we treating Iran differently than North Korea anyhow?  Or the Soviet Union in the 50's and 60's or China at that time?  I would be interested  to know how you got sold on the imperative of taking action in this instance?  What is the compelling reason that I have not addressed in these posts?


by Shaun Appleby on Wed Oct 03, 2007 at 02:16:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Any Attack On Iran Will Lead To Invasion (none / 0)

Honestly, if I believed that the US was intending such an attack and I didn't already live in Australia I would seriously consider moving here.


by Shaun Appleby on Wed Oct 03, 2007 at 02:42:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Any Attack On Iran Will Lead To Invasion (none / 0)

Ok so what you are suggesting is that Isreal/US will accept a nuclear Iran . Well that is a choice I pointed to , like I said either US/Isreal backs up their rhetoric with action or they live with an Iran with nuclear weapons.

You seem to suggest both nations will live with a nuclear iran , that will be a surprising departure from the stance of both countries. I don't think the leaders in both nations will choose that path .

I frankly don't know what is the best option , I am tempted to say since Isreal has nuclear weapons it can be seen as a deterance to Iran , hence maybe they should be allowed to have it but if I was in leadership position in Isreal and Us I don't think that is the path I'll choose.


Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.
by lori on Wed Oct 03, 2007 at 03:06:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Any Attack On Iran Will Lead To Invasion (none / 0)

What would be your suggestion on how to deal with this issue when the time to make a decision arrives?


by Shaun Appleby on Wed Oct 03, 2007 at 03:23:14 AM EST
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Iran is not who we should monitor (none / 0)

If Iran can develop nuclear technology despite our best diplomatic efforts, there is nothing we can do. They have every right to develop stuff on their own. What we can do is be harsh on countries that assist Iran in developing nuclear technology.


by Pravin on Wed Oct 03, 2007 at 10:05:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Any Attack On Iran Will Lead To Invasion (none / 0)

Would you be surprised to know that Khamenei, the real leader of Iran, has already agreed to a UN mandated program to restrict their nuclear program that the US has rejected?  See the August 2006 interview with Noam Chomsky on the subject, excerpted below:


...Iran appears to be the only country to have accepted the proposal by IAEA director Mohammed ElBaradei that all weapons-usable fissile materials be placed under international control, a step towards a verifiable Fissile Materials Cutoff Treaty (FMCT), as mandated by the UN General Assembly in 1993. ElBaradei's proposal, if implemented, would not only end the Iranian nuclear crisis but would also deal with a vastly more serious crisis: the growing threat of nuclear war, which leads prominent strategic analysts to warn of "apocalypse soon" (Robert McNamara) if policies continue on their current course. The US strongly opposes a verifiable FMCT, but over US objections, the treaty came to a vote at the United Nations, where it passed 147-1, with two abstentions: Israel, which cannot oppose its patron, and more interestingly, Blair's Britain, which retains a degree of sovereignty. The British ambassador stated that Britain supports the treaty, but it "divides the international community" ­ 147 to 1. These again are matters that are virtually suppressed outside of specialist circles, and are matters of literal survival of the species, extending far beyond Iran.

Noam Chomsky - Yediot Ahronot interview 3 Aug 06

What do you make of that?  And do you realise that Iran is now close to finalising agreement with the IAEA on their nuclear program and verifiable inspection?


The Senate resolution passed a day after Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad told the U.N. General Assembly that an agreement reached last month between his country and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) over its disputed nuclear program has, in the Iranian view, settled the matter.

CNN - 29 Sep 07

We may dispute the resolve of the UN but there is every indication that Iran is willing to play.  If you don't pay any attention to Ahmadinejad's ridiculous rhetoric and look instead at what Iran actually does much of the crisis seems to be of our own devising.  A lot depends on where you are getting your information.


by Shaun Appleby on Tue Oct 02, 2007 at 11:11:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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